Prediction Games

From Wikipedia, the free, on-line encyclopedia: "A prediction game is a game which allow users to guess at the outcome of future events. Prediction games are generally operated online and are free for users to play. Points are awarded to players who most accurately predict the outcome of an event, and those points are converted into cash prizes."

You may have noticed that various news organizations started prediction games about who would be the vice presidential candidates. I never heard how they came out which probably means they weren't very accurate. A number of entities have used them successfully, particularly if those in the game are (1) independent, (2) diverse, and (3) and knowledgeable of the topic of the game. See Cass R. Sunstein, Infotopia; How Many Minds Produce Knowledge (New York: Oxford Unviersity Press, 2006). He reviews a number of prediction games on pp. 4-6.

If you're interested in prediction games, also called prediction markets, read the wikipedia entry and the Sustein book. I'm interested in what you think, so post a comment.

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