Bass Forecasting Model

Entrepreneurs need to forecast sales of new products. This is kind of tricky because it requires you to make a bet when the the market with you in it will not be the same as the market as it is now. Forecasting is difficult, especially in the future.

Here's what Everett Rogers says about it:

It assumes that potential adopters of an innovation are influenced by two types of communication channels: Mass media and interpersonal channels. Individuals adopting a new product because of a mass media message occur continually through the diffusion process but are concentrated in the relatively early time periods. Individuals adopting as a result of interpersonal messages about the new produce expand in numbers during the ensuing time periods, creating a bell-shaped diffusion curve...The Bass model assumes taht the rate of adoption during the first half of the diffusion process is symmetrical with that in the second half, as would necessarily occur for an S-shaped curve." (Everett C. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations Fifth Edition, 2003, pp. 208-9).

DecisionPro, Inc, has a product that allows you to use this model. I've not tried it, but I found it on the Internet 5/24/2008. Google them and find out what's up.

And read Rogers. You'll need to develop forecasts and this looks as good any.

Entrepreneurship is the life's blood of all my professional activities. It makes them go. And go read my mystery for free at wwww.kearneymusicschoolmurders.blogspot.com or buy it from Amazon.com more cheaply than you can print it out.